Welcome back to WMPO!
We have a fun week ahead with some huge contests. We are going to get right into the nitty gritty, but I did want to direct you to both this week's podcast where we talk about the actual useful stats and ways to use stats every week for PGA DFS and betting. And then secondly, the video below piggybacks on those concepts to bring it full circle for this week.
One of the things I see far too often is the need for "boutique" stats when they are simply not predictive. And in fact, one of the things Fantasy Golf Bag members have benefitted the most from the past 8 years is avoiding landmines...no not landmines as in golfers, but building out stat profiles that completely derail your research every week. So check out the podcast, and then check out the PRO video below.
I feel like that whackjob Jim Cramer some of these weaks...there is no absolute perfect blend and mix of data to lay out a ranking of players 1 to 10 that will finish 1 through 10. It unfortunately doesn't happen. But on the flipside, you also cannot go so micro-focused that the players with actual chances to play well are overlooked because you weighted "Par 5 scoring". On that same thought, running anything with about 20 stats is counterproductive. Stay focused, blend some micro level data but always build a core model around larger scale stats and performance. This is the surest way to not eat your own EV.
With that being said, let's talk about TPC Scottsdale and what actually matters this week. Again, check out the PRO video below if you haven't already. It will highlight some unique, but simple ways to quickly sort through data of past events to understand where you should put your attention.
Course Talk
I will try to abstain from posting a bunch of screenshots from Course preview PRO, but this is where all the data comes from. Feel free to reference that every single week. It's where most start their weekly research, and same goes for me.
So what am I looking at this week. Understanding where we are in the schedule. Most players here have maybe 3 rounds of Shotlink, most have less than 6. Using recent data from this year has its place, but not the bulk of our research. If we are curious about recent performance, Spectrum Data is where we go. So that's where we go. Looking at the top players in Spectrum EDGE but no worse than -1 SG in either category. We can try to catch a falling knife with those players with huge splits, but I won't be recommending any here.
Top Spectrum plays...not exclusive to Spectrum, their SG is reasonable but Spectrum shows a strong postive trend!
| Player | DK $ |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | 7300 |
| J.T. Poston | 7500 |
| Max Homa | 7500 |
| Collin Morikawa | 8500 |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | 7600 |
| Haotong Li | 7500 |
| Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen | 7200 |
| Adam Schenk | 6200 |
| Chris Kirk | 7000 |
| J.J. Spaun | 9000 |
| Daniel Berger | 7500 |
| Chandler Phillips | 6400 |
| Vince Whaley | 6900 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | 6600 |
| Ben Griffin | 9500 |
| Michael Brennan | 6800 |
Okay back to the course. It really is straightforward despite it seeing some really low scores. In the video below we cycled through every single SG stat, and the overall top performers the past 3 years was T2G and Bogey Avoidance. Looking at putting it was seemingly negatively correlated. OTT was mostly good, but doesnt capture enough of the rest of their game...same for Approach.
Driving is super basic, favors longer hitters slightly but everyone is hitting it into the same bucket. Approach is also spread out...once again leaning us into generic stats capturing current form and long-term performance.
Not sure on the weather yet, I'll drop my thoughts into discord, but does seem like Thursday could be gusty. stay tuned.