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Alright, welcome back everyone! Let's first brace ourselves. We know what this week, and largely the entire Florida swing holds for us...carnage!
Yes, this course has been softened up and scoring has been much easier the past 2 years, but still the carnage is still out there...just not as bad as it once was, sadly.
Let's talk about the course. So first, scoring was artificially lowered because simply shifting from Par 70 to 71 leads to lower RTP scores. Weather has been better also. But the big one is the use of overseeded bermuda makes the entire course softer and more receptive. Rough was increased slightly this year, but still 2.5-3" ryegrass isn't a big deal. It is very stringy...sticky especially if laying down, but nothing too scary.
Does this change anything? Obviously it shifts our dfs projections, and truthfully when we looked at our predictive stats for 2023 and prior, we see a different theme unfold than in 2024-2025. So yes, we do have a slightly different focus, so let's touch on it.
This year, which aligns with the last 2 years, a much larger emphasis on approach. Quite simply, with this essentially being target golf, the best approach players do have a distinct advantage. Driving is largely irrelevant, no advantage to distance, no advantage to accuracy, players have to adapt to the unique layout. But approach is king which shows up in our predictive lead-in data:
So as you can see, large emphasis on Approach, GIR, T2G (overlaps some). Really simple. The timeframes matter which we will get into in a minute. To contrast this prior to 2024, much higher emphasis on scoring (SG & SP Total) and Bogey Avoidance. Approach was not as predictive.
So this week I am really leaning into the 3 models over Last 2 months, Last 6 months and Last 12 months. Much higher emphasis on SG and SP Approach, GIR and Bogey Avoidance.