Redkacheek's Playbook: 2025 THE PLAYERS
Hey everyone, welcome back. This week is THE PLAYERS Championship and we have our first Milly of the season! Pretty fun event through and through. Fun to research, fun to sweat, typically a brutal cut and then always a good finish on 16-17-18.
First thing I will say is if you missed the FRL article yesterday, it was really interesting and there are 6 bets + 3 "higher probability, lower EV" bets. I of course bet all 9, and looking forward to enjoying the win at noon tomorrow until someone snatches it away at 5:15PM. Nonetheless, the trends are quite strong and there are some really good names that fit our trends this year. Check it out! FRL Research: 2025 THE PLAYERS Championship
Lastly, we have ramped up the tools over the last few weeks, we now have two IQ tools (Driving, Approach), the Spectrum EDGE, StatModel PRO, Turf Splits, Time Machine, among others in the Free Tools. I recorded a bunch of new videos last week and this week so check them out and let me know if you have any questions or requests...either for new tools, changes or enhancements.
With all that out of the way, let me give you all one more big THANK YOU! Really appreciate all of the old and new FGB Members who are here and I am really excited for us all to have a great year betting golf and playing PGA DFS. We are going for our third straight outright after Henley last week and Highsmith the week before. It seems fitting to run hot during the Florida Swing, but let's keep it going as we get ready for Augusta and the other Majors!
If you'd like to support further, you can check out the FGB Avatars here: DFS Avatars
Alright, let's discuss the week ahead.
Course Preview
First, let's just get an overview of the course.
TPC Sawgrass
Architect: Pete Dye
Par: 72
Yardage: 7,275
Scoring Avg: 72.1
Avg. Winning Score: -15
Avg Cut: Even
Last 5 Winners: 2024: Scheffler (-20), 2023: Scheffler (-17), 2022: C. Smith (-13), 2021: J. Thomas (-14), 2019: McIlroy (-16)
Alright, so let's talk about the course details and how we should be profiling golfers for the week ahead. Interestingly, there are many stats and comparisons to be made with Bay Hill from last week, so some of this might sound familiar. Let's start with Tee Shots...
Similar to last week, position OTT is very important for success at TPC Sawgrass. With a Missed Fwy Penalty of +0.44 (same as Bay Hill last week), proficiency in DD buckets is vital.
This is definitely more balanced than Bay Hill, but nice to see a concentration of drives between 270-300 again. We can use this in our process this week to ensure we focus on players that are meeting our criteria for similarly difficult holes. Here is a look at the top players
Next up is Approach shots. More spread out this week but I will say when I looked through finish position comparisons in the Course preview PRO, approaches from 150-175 was a difference maker between winners and top 10, and top 10 and top 25 finishers. When using the ApproachIQ tool, I would pay some attention to players in that range.
Alright, next up is lead-in form. I love this visualization every week. Some week's we see more randomness in lead-in form, but not during the Florida Swing. You can see how good each winner was playing leading up to the year they won! When looking through past leaderboards in the TimeMachine tool, my observation was lead-in OTT was less important, and lead-in ARG was more important. I found that consistent over most years which is interesting. So definitely something to consider.
Course History?
No, thank you. TPC Sawgrass has infamous volatility. To me it's not indicative of success here. In fact, chalk historically gets wrecked here. So for me, while I am looking at their history to see consistent poor or good finishes, large and away I don't really care if they played here twice and had an MC and a 54th. I am more concerned when I see 5 of 6 years with an MC, or more excited if I see 4 of 8 years with Top 20s. That's how I am viewing Course History this week.
So let's quickly recap the course relative to our research.
Driving…
This course is shorter than Tour Average for DD, and unlike last week it holds true. You can see 6 drives from 290-310 (none over 300), but that means 8 drives are less than 290, and 4 of those are under 270. Driving Distance really doesn't matter here. Doesn't mean OTT as a lead-in stat isn't still valuable...it is, but certainly less so than last week or other weeks on Tour.
Driving Accuracy…
Very similar to last week. This course demands accuracy off the tee, and while the DA% is easier than Tour Avg, this is due to the DD being down and the player's preference on position off-the-tee. Not to mention many tee shots simply don't allow drivers, so guys will naturally hit more fairways with 3 woods or less, than with drivers.
All of this is to say that good driving is absolutely a must but there is some leniency here where driving distance is relaxed and accuracy reward goes up.
After that it is Approaches, and I really don’t have much to say. The approach shots are really spread out. I think if you use the ApproachIQ, you can look at all buckets equally, but personally I am most interested in the mid-range so 125-150, 150-175 and 175-200. I am using SG:APP for these this week, toggling to proximity just to eyeball the 125-150 range.
That’s pretty much it. We need our players to be in play but more importantly we need really good irons. This is slightly flipped from Bay Hill where driving was the primary factor and approach was secondary. Focus on good iron play and ARG play, overall good recent form, and definitely rDA% in the DrivingIQ for 250-270, 270-290 and then SG:OTT for 290-310.
Weather Outlook
Thursday Weather
Friday Weather
Weather looks great the first 2 days. No concerns on my end. Saturday and Sunday look a little dicey (a lot dicey) but not much we can do from where we stand, so just fyi...might get extra tilty over the weekend when you see your 6/6 lineups blowing up.
CORE PLAYS
Alright, let’s get into my Core Plays. Going to be a little more detailed this week specifically for the Milly Maker.